in virginia and florida, obama 49, romney 44. they're beginning to get very depressed, the republicans, when they see these numbers. no republican has ever been elected without at least ohio. how worried should they be? >> if you ask any republican now if the election today was held, most republicans would say unfortunately it looks like president obama is leading. ohio and florida are in a close election, which is going to be must win for mitt romney. there are varying polls on virginia. virginia is looking strong for president obama but it's all over the map. president obama certainly has more paths to victory than mitt romney. he has to win florida and ohio and pick up nevada, colorado, iowa, new hampshire, wisconsin's in play. polls a snapshot of where we are now. you're right, it was before all of this tumult in the middle east began again. to the extent they represent a trend line tells us something. ohio is the only one of the three you mentioned that i think republicans are beginning to think is light blue and may be gone